World Cup Gameweek 3
Jun 25, 2026 9.00pm
New York New Jersey Stadium

Ecuador vs Germany - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ecuador

All competitions
World Cup
Last game
Jun 21, 2026 1.00am
Ecuador 0 - 0 Curacao

Germany

All competitions
World Cup
Last game
Jun 20, 2026 9.00pm
Germany 2 - 1 Ivory Coast

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Germany win with a probability of 58.4%. A draw has a probability of 23.15% and a win for Ecuador has a probability of 18.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.92%) and 1-2 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.86%) , while for a Ecuador win it is 1-0 (6.18%).

Result

Ecuador 18.45% (+0.56)
Draw 23.15% (-0.06)
Germany 58.4% (-0.50)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.9% (+1.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.29% (+0.68)
Under 1.5 25.71% (-0.67)
Over 2.5 49.8% (+0.90)
Under 2.5 50.2% (-0.90)
Over 3.5 28.05% (+0.81)
Under 3.5 71.95% (-0.80)
Over 4.5 16.55% (+0.52)
Under 4.5 83.45% (-0.51)

Ecuador Goals

Over 1.5 20.04% (+0.90)
Under 1.5 79.96% (-0.91)
Over 2.5 5.6% (+0.42)
Under 2.5 94.4% (-0.42)
Over 3.5 1.29% (+0.14)
Under 3.5 98.71% (-0.14)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5 81.99% (+0.04)
Under 0.5 18.01% (-0.03)
Over 1.5 52.45% (+0.18)
Under 1.5 47.55% (-0.18)
Over 2.5 26.27% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 73.73% (-0.19)
Over 3.5 10.69% (+0.13)
Under 3.5 89.31% (-0.13)

Score analysis

Ecuador 18.45%
Draw 23.15%
Germany 58.4%
Ecuador
1-0 @ 6.18% (-0.05)
2-1 @ 4.82% (+0.16)
2-0 @ 2.72% (+0.08)
3-1 @ 1.44% (+0.10)
3-2 @ 1.29% (+0.10)
Other @ 1.2% (+0.13)
Total : 18.45%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.86%
0-0 @ 7.11% (-0.25)
2-2 @ 4.31% (+0.15)
Other @ 0.09%
Total : 23.15%
Germany
0-1 @ 12.42% (-0.40)
0-2 @ 10.92% (-0.30)
1-2 @ 9.66% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 6.46% (-0.16)
1-3 @ 5.75% (+0.05)
2-3 @ 2.59% (+0.11)
Other @ 10.6% (+0.13)
Total : 58.4%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
May 29, 2013 7.30pm
2
4
HT : 2 2
FT
  • Antonio Valencia 0' goal
  • Waltor Ayovi 0' goal
  • goal Lukas Podolski 0'
  • goal Lars Bender 0'