World Cup
Mexico
Jul 1, 2026 3.00am
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Mexico City Stadium
Ecuador
  • Julián Quiñones 22' goal
  • Raúl Jiménez 31' goal
  • yellowcard Alan Franco 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Kendry Páez 90'+3'
  • redcard Piero Hincapié 90'+5'
  • redcard Piero Hincapié 90'+6'
  • yellowcard Moisés Caicedo 90'+9'

Mexico vs Ecuador - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Reaction

Feature
Feature

The match

Team News
Match Preview
Predicted Lineups

Form, Standings, Stats

Mexico

All competitions

Ecuador

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 45.56%. A draw had a probability of 29.02% and a win for Ecuador had a probability of 25.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.34%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%) , while for a Ecuador win it was 0-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood.

Result

Mexico 45.56% ▼ (-1.05)
Draw 29.02% ▼ (-1.45)
Ecuador 25.4% ▲ (+2.47)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.06% ▲ (+4.52)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.06% ▲ (+4.02)
Under 1.5 33.94% ▼ (-4.02)
Over 2.5 39.66% ▲ (+4.98)
Under 2.5 60.34% ▼ (-4.91)
Over 3.5 20.17% ▲ (+3.91)
Under 3.5 79.83% ▼ (-3.91)
Over 4.5 10.62% ▲ (+2.45)
Under 4.5 89.38% ▼ (-2.46)

First Half Winner

Mexico 35.71% ▲ (+0.01)
Draw 49.04% ▼ (-0.01)
Ecuador 15.26%

Team To Score First

Mexico 59.22% ▲ (+1.18)
No Goal 10.8% ▼ (-1.74)
Ecuador 29.98% ▲ (+0.58)

Corners

Over 8 47.46% ▲ (+13.28)
Equal 8 11.35% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 8 41.19% ▼ (-13.29)
Over 9 36.77% ▲ (+12.10)
Equal 9 10.7% ▲ (+1.20)
Under 9 52.54% ▼ (-13.28)
Over 10.5 27.45% ▲ (+10.16)
Under 10.5 72.55% ▼ (-10.16)

Mexico Goals

Over 1.5 38.02% ▲ (+1.89)
Under 1.5 61.98% ▼ (-1.89)
Over 2.5 14.75% ▲ (+1.52)
Under 2.5 85.25% ▼ (-1.52)
Over 3.5 4.99% ▲ (+0.63)
Under 3.5 95.01% ▼ (-0.62)

Ecuador Goals

Over 0.5 57.13% ▲ (+3.82)
Under 0.5 42.87% ▼ (-3.82)
Over 1.5 23.26% ▲ (+4.18)
Under 1.5 76.74% ▼ (-4.18)
Over 2.5 7.7% ▲ (+2.09)
Under 2.5 92.3% ▼ (-2.10)
Over 3.5 2.15% ▲ (+0.75)
Under 3.5 97.85% ▼ (-0.75)

Score analysis

Mexico 45.55%
Draw 29.02%
Ecuador 25.4%
Mexico
1-0 @ 14.12% ▼ (-1.81)
2-0 @ 9.34% ▼ (-0.85)
2-1 @ 8.42% ▲ (+0.21)
3-0 @ 3.87% ▼ (-0.11)
3-1 @ 3.48% ▲ (+0.38)
3-2 @ 1.61% ▲ (+0.48)
Other @ 4.71% ▲ (+0.66)
Total : 45.55%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.98% ▼ (-0.43)
0-0 @ 10.8% ▼ (-1.74)
2-2 @ 4.16% ▲ (+0.60)
Other @ 0.28% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 29.02%
Ecuador
0-1 @ 8.99% ▼ (-0.50)
1-2 @ 5.7% ▲ (+0.71)
0-2 @ 4.09% ▲ (+0.32)
1-3 @ 1.91% ▲ (+0.50)
0-3 @ 1.49% ▲ (+0.26)
2-3 @ 1.35%
Other @ 1.87% ▲ (+0.78)
Total : 25.4%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Mexico
Oct 15, 2025 3.30am
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Guadalajara Stadium
Ecuador
  • Germán Berterame 3' goal
  • Érick Sánchez 71' yellowcard
  • Cesar Montes 74' yellowcard
  • goal Jordy Alcívar 20'
  • yellowcard John Yeboah 28'
  • yellowcard Jordy Alcívar 64'
  • yellowcard Yaimar Medina 66'
  • yellowcard Joel Ordóñez 75'
Copa America
Mexico
Jul 1, 2024 1.00am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT University of Phoenix Stadium
Ecuador
  • Cesar Montes 6' yellowcard
  • Cesar Montes 6' yellowcard
  • Jorge Sanchez 50' yellowcard
  • Jorge Sanchez 50' yellowcard
  • Luis Chavez 73' yellowcard
  • Luis Chavez 73' yellowcard
  • Johan Vasquez 82' yellowcard
  • Johan Vasquez 82' yellowcard
  • Carlos Uriel 90'+4' yellowcard
  • Carlos Uriel 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Moises Caicedo 43'
  • yellowcard Moises Caicedo 43'
  • yellowcard Jordy Caicedo 90'+6'
  • yellowcard Jordy Caicedo 90'+6'
International Friendlies
Mexico
Jun 6, 2022 12.30am
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Soldier Field
Ecuador
  • Andres Guardado 28' yellowcard
  • Alexis Vega 47' yellowcard
  • Jesus Gallardo 66' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Carlos Gruezo 34'
  • yellowcard Jose Cifuentes 41'
  • yellowcard Moises Caicedo 60'
International Friendlies
Mexico
Oct 28, 2021 2.00am
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT
Ecuador
  • Roberto Alvarado 6' goal
  • Kevin Alvarez 50' yellowcard
  • Osvaldo Rodriguez 59' goal
  • goal Jhonny Quinonez 2'
  • goal Janner Corozo 15'
  • yellowcard Michael Estrada 49'
  • goal Walter Chala 75'
International Friendlies
Mexico
Jun 10, 2019 12.00am
3
2
HT : 1 0
FT AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Ecuador
  • Jonathan dos Santos 28' goal
  • Luis Montes 63' goal
  • Luis Rodriguez 77' goal
  • goal Angel Mena 47'
  • goal Ayrton Preciado 66'
  • yellowcard Pedro Velasco 80'
  • yellowcard Robert Arboleda 88'
Copa America
Mexico
Jun 19, 2015 10.00pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio El Teniente, Rancagua
Ecuador
  • Hugo Ayala 17' yellowcard
  • Marco Fabian 53' yellowcard
  • Raul Jimenez 64' goal
  • Eduardo Herrera 86' yellowcard
  • goal Miller Bolanos 26'
  • yellowcard Miller Bolanos 28'
  • yellowcard Alex Ibarra 52'
  • goal Enner Valencia 57'
  • yellowcard Osbaldo Lastra 91'

Form Data

Czech Republic 0 - 3 Mexico
Mexico 1 - 0 South Korea
Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa
Mexico 5 - 1 Serbia
Mexico 1 - 0 Australia
Mexico 2 - 0 Ghana
Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany
Ecuador 0 - 0 Curacao
Ivory Coast 1 - 0 Ecuador
Ecuador 3 - 0 Guatemala
Ecuador 2 - 1 Saudi Arabia
Netherlands 1 - 1 Ecuador

Build-up

Head to head
How to watch
Predicted Lineups