Taca de Portugal | Third Round
Oct 20, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Estadio Joao Paulo II
Benfica

Lusitania
1 - 4
Benfica

Ferrara (45' pen.)
Bessa (81')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Mario (9'), Silva (36'), Cabral (68'), Gouveia (87')
Aursnes (43')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Taca de Portugal clash between Lusitania and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lusitania

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:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Benfica

All competitions
Last Game: Estoril 0-1 Benfica
Saturday, October 7 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 92.79%. A draw had a probability of 5.5% and a win for Lusitania had a probability of 1.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-3 with a probability of 13.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (12.64%) and 0-2 (11.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.62%), while for a Lusitania win it was 1-0 (0.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.

Result
LusitaniaDrawBenfica
1.7% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)5.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)92.79% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Both teams to score 33.34% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
77.18% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)22.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
57.98% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)42.02% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Lusitania Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
34.23% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)65.76% (0.019000000000005 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
6.67% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)93.33% (0.007000000000005 0.01)
Benfica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.4% (0.0019999999999953 0)2.6%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
87.91% (0.0030000000000001 0)12.09% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Score Analysis
    Lusitania 1.7%
    Benfica 92.77%
    Draw 5.51%
LusitaniaDrawBenfica
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 1.7%
1-1 @ 2.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 1.71%
2-2 @ 1% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 5.51%
0-3 @ 13.85%
0-4 @ 12.64% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 11.38%
0-5 @ 9.23% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-1 @ 6.24% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 5.81% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-6 @ 5.61% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-4 @ 5.3% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-2 @ 4.77% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-5 @ 3.87% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-7 @ 2.93% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-6 @ 2.35% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-8 @ 1.34% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-7 @ 1.23% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.22% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 1.11% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.92%
Total : 92.77%

How you voted: Lusitania vs Benfica

Lusitania
12.0%
Draw
12.0%
Benfica
76.0%
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