Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United Under-21s win with a probability of 46.52%. A win for Stoke City Under-21s had a probability of 33.27% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.71%) and 3-2 (5.33%). The likeliest Stoke City Under-21s win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester United Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Manchester United Under-21s	Draw	Stoke City Under-21s
46.52% ( 0.01)	20.2% ( 0)	33.27% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 75.33% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

77.39% (

0.01)

22.6% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

58.28% (

0.01)

41.72% (

-0.01)

Manchester United Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.09% (

0.01)

10.9% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

64.93% (

0.01)

35.06% (

-0.01)

Stoke City Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.55% (

0.01)

15.44% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.71% (

0.01)

44.29% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Manchester United Under-21s 46.52%

Stoke City Under-21s 33.27%

Draw 20.2%

Manchester United Under-21s	Draw	Stoke City Under-21s
2-1 @ 7.72% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.71% ( 0) 3-2 @ 5.33% 2-0 @ 4.13% ( -0) 1-0 @ 3.73% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.16% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.05% 4-2 @ 2.95% ( 0) 4-3 @ 1.84% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.69% 5-1 @ 1.4% 5-2 @ 1.31% ( 0) Other @ 4.49% Total : 46.52%	2-2 @ 7.21% 1-1 @ 6.97% ( -0) 3-3 @ 3.32% 0-0 @ 1.68% Other @ 1.02% Total : 20.2%	1-2 @ 6.51% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.49% 1-3 @ 4.05% 0-1 @ 3.15% ( -0) 0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.1% 1-4 @ 1.89% 0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0) 3-4 @ 1.55% Other @ 4.76% Total : 33.27%