UEFA Nations League

Nations League | League C

Sep 23, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Bulgaria
5 - 1
Gibraltar

Antov (23'), Despodov (36'), Kirilov (52'), Stefanov (55'), Petkov (81')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Chipolina (26')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Nations League clash between Bulgaria and Gibraltar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bulgaria

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: Georgia 0-0 Bulgaria
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League C4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bulgaria	0	0	0
2	Georgia	0	0	0
3	North Macedonia	0	0	0
4	Gibraltar	0	0	0

Gibraltar

Last Six:

Comp:

Last Game: N. Macedonia 4-0 Gibraltar
Sunday, June 12 at 5pm in Nations League

Current League C4 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bulgaria	0	0	0
2	Georgia	0	0	0
3	North Macedonia	0	0	0
4	Gibraltar	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bulgaria win with a probability of 57.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Gibraltar had a probability of 19.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bulgaria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.16%), while for a Gibraltar win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bulgaria would win this match.

Result
Bulgaria	Draw	Gibraltar
57.24% ( -0.11)	23.5% ( 0.05)	19.26% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 49.01% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.26% (

-0.11)

50.74% (

0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.37% (

-0.1)

72.63% (

0.1)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.5% (

-0.08)

17.5% (

0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.99% (

-0.14)

48.01% (

0.14)

Gibraltar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.41% (

0.01)

40.59% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.81% (

0.01)

77.19% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Bulgaria 57.24%

Gibraltar 19.26%

Draw 23.5%

Bulgaria	Draw	Gibraltar
1-0 @ 12.38% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 10.79% 2-1 @ 9.73% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.73% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 0.95% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 57.24%	1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( -0) Other @ 0.85% Total : 23.5%	0-1 @ 6.41% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.32% Other @ 2.1% Total : 19.26%