National League South | Gameweek 44

Apr 18, 2025 at 3pm UK

Vauxhall Ground

Hemel Hemps.
2 - 0
Chesham

Ajayi (61'), White (69')
(8')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Coverage of the National League South clash between Hemel Hempstead Town and Chesham United.

Form, Standings, Stats

Hemel Hempstead Town

All competitions

Last Game: Boreham Wood 3-0 Hemel Hemps.
Saturday, April 12 at 3pm in National League South

Goals
for

Chesham United

All competitions

Last Game: Chesham 2-1 Farnborough
Saturday, April 12 at 3pm in National League South

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hemel Hempstead Town win with a probability of 39.5%. A win for Chesham United had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hemel Hempstead Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Chesham United win was 0-1 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hemel Hempstead Town would win this match.

Result
Hemel Hempstead Town	Draw	Chesham United
39.5% ( -0.75)	25.55% ( -0.05)	34.96% ( 0.8)

Both teams to score 55.63% (

0.32)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.69% (

0.35)

48.31% (

-0.35)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.54% (

0.32)

70.46% (

-0.31)

Hemel Hempstead Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.86% (

-0.23)

24.15% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.54% (

-0.32)

58.46% (

0.33)

Chesham United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.34% (

0.65)

26.66% (

-0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.09% (

0.85)

61.91% (

-0.84)

Score Analysis

Hemel Hempstead Town 39.5%

Chesham United 34.96%

Draw 25.54%

Hemel Hempstead Town	Draw	Chesham United
1-0 @ 9.15% ( -0.19) 2-1 @ 8.59% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 6.5% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 4.07% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 1.92% Total : 39.5%	1-1 @ 12.09% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.54%	0-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.99% ( 0.12) 0-2 @ 5.63% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.12) 2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.1) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.16% Total : 34.96%