Major League Soccer

Jul 7, 2024 at 2.55am UK

Al Saqr Stadium

Austin
2 - 1
NY City

Zardes (45+7', 45+7', 69', 69')
Gallagher (45+4'), Gallagher (45+4')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Perea (5', 5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Austin FC and New York City FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austin FC

All competitions

Last Game: Kansas 2-0 Austin
Sunday, June 30 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

New York City FC

All competitions

Last Game: NY City 2-0 Montreal
Thursday, July 4 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 47.54%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Austin FC in this match.

Result
Austin FC	Draw	New York City FC
47.54% ( 7.24)	23.33% ( -1.97)	29.12% ( -5.27)

Both teams to score 60.86% (

4.51)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.6% (

6.94)

40.4% (

-6.95)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.22% (

6.79)

62.77% (

-6.79)

Austin FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.74% (

6.04)

17.25% (

-6.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.43% (

9.67)

47.57% (

-9.67)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.54% (

0.09)

26.45% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.37% (

0.11)

61.63% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Austin FC 47.54%

New York City FC 29.12%

Draw 23.33%

Austin FC	Draw	New York City FC
2-1 @ 9.37% ( 0.67) 1-0 @ 8.02% ( -0.99) 2-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.49) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( 1.26) 3-0 @ 4.13% ( 0.94) 3-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.85) 4-1 @ 2.41% ( 0.87) 4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.65) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.58) Other @ 4.02% Total : 47.54%	1-1 @ 10.66% ( -1.28) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.46) 0-0 @ 4.56% ( -1.62) 3-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.38) Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.33%	1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.83) 0-1 @ 6.07% ( -2.13) 0-2 @ 4.04% ( -1.41) 1-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.36) 2-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.21) 0-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.62) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.27% Total : 29.12%