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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Volendam win with a probability of 53%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 24.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Volendam win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Volendam would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Volendam | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
53% ( 0.46) | 22.88% ( -0.15) | 24.12% ( -0.31) |
Both teams to score 57.76% ( 0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.59% ( 0.38) | 42.41% ( -0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.18% ( 0.38) | 64.82% ( -0.38) |
FC Volendam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.99% ( 0.3) | 16.01% ( -0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.65% ( 0.54) | 45.34% ( -0.54) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.78% ( -0.05) | 31.22% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.43% ( -0.06) | 67.57% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
FC Volendam | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.16% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 8.39% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 5.96% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.47% Total : 53% | 1-1 @ 10.66% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.88% | 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.21% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.78% Total : 24.12% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 103 | 17 | 86 | 84 |
2 | Feyenoord | 31 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 80 | 24 | 56 | 75 |
3 | FC Twente | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 59 | 31 | 28 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 35 | 27 | 58 |
5 | Ajax | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 65 | 58 | 7 | 49 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 47 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 45 | 43 | 2 | 46 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 42 |
10 | Heerenveen | 31 | 10 | 6 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 36 |
11 | PEC Zwolle | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 35 |
12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 31 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 33 |
14 | Heracles | 31 | 9 | 5 | 17 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 32 |
15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 66 | -20 | 26 |
16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 31 | 52 | -21 | 25 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 75 | -45 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 31 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 70 | -45 | 2 |
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