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Championship header 2

League One

Exeter City
League One | Gameweek 39
Mar 16, 2024 at 3pm UK
St James Park
Burton Albion

Exeter
1 - 0
Burton Albion

Cole (41')
Sweeney (30'), Aitchison (43'), Carroll (65'), Cole (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Caprice (2'), Harper (55'), Carayol (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Exeter City and Burton Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions
Last Game: Shrewsbury 0-3 Exeter
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in League One

Burton Albion

All competitions
Last Game: Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion
Tuesday, March 12 at 7.45pm in League One

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 44.29%. A win for Burton Albion had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Burton Albion win was 0-1 (8.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Exeter City in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Exeter City.

Result
Exeter CityDrawBurton Albion
44.29% (0.016999999999996 0.02)26.53% (0.0030000000000001 0)29.19% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Both teams to score 50.38% (-0.012999999999998 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.86% (-0.012 -0.01)54.14% (0.013999999999996 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.45% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)75.55% (0.010999999999996 0.01)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.69% (0.0040000000000049 0)24.31% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.3% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)58.7% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Burton Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.56% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)33.44% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.93% (-0.019000000000002 -0.02)70.07% (0.021999999999991 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 44.28%
    Burton Albion 29.19%
    Draw 26.52%
Exeter CityDrawBurton Albion
1-0 @ 11.49%
2-1 @ 8.91%
2-0 @ 8.13% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.2% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-0 @ 3.83% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-2 @ 2.3% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.48%
4-0 @ 1.36% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 44.28%
1-1 @ 12.59%
0-0 @ 8.13% (0.0040000000000013 0)
2-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 26.52%
0-1 @ 8.91%
1-2 @ 6.9% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
0-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.52% (-0.0029999999999997 -0)
2-3 @ 1.78% (-0.002 -0)
0-3 @ 1.78% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.42%
Total : 29.19%

How you voted: Exeter vs Burton Albion

Exeter City
72.7%
Draw
18.2%
Burton Albion
9.1%
11
Head to Head
Sep 2, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 6
Burton Albion
0-1
Exeter

Powell (26'), Moon (59'), Seddon (81')
Seddon (90+4')
Trevitt (75')
Cole (45+3')
Feb 11, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 31
Burton Albion
1-0
Exeter
Winnall (84')
> Preview
Sep 17, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 10
Exeter
0-2
Burton Albion
Oshilaja (63'), Keillor-Dunn (69')
Jul 22, 2016 7.30pm
Pre-season Friendlies
Exeter
1-0
Burton Albion
Watkins (56')
Dec 6, 2014 7.45pm
Exeter
1-1
Burton Albion
Ribeiro (87')
Blyth (60')
McCrory (93')
> Match Report