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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 53.23%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 24% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.36%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Twente | Draw | Vitesse |
| 53.23% ( | 22.76% ( | 24% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.06% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.04% ( | 41.96% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.63% ( | 64.36% ( |
| FC Twente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.23% ( | 15.77% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.1% ( | 44.89% ( |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.93% ( | 31.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.61% ( | 67.38% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Twente | Draw | Vitesse |
| 2-1 @ 9.77% ( 1-0 @ 9.05% ( 2-0 @ 8.36% ( 3-1 @ 6.02% ( 3-0 @ 5.15% ( 3-2 @ 3.52% 4-1 @ 2.78% ( 4-0 @ 2.38% ( 4-2 @ 1.62% 5-1 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 3.57% Total : 53.23% | 1-1 @ 10.57% 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0-0 @ 4.9% ( 3-3 @ 1.37% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.75% | 1-2 @ 6.18% ( 0-1 @ 5.73% ( 0-2 @ 3.35% ( 1-3 @ 2.41% ( 2-3 @ 2.23% ( 0-3 @ 1.3% ( Other @ 2.81% Total : 24% |