West Ham United play host to Southampton on Sunday afternoon knowing that they will qualify for the Europa League if they avoid defeat at the London Stadium.
While the Saints could still drop down to 16th spot, prevailing against the Hammers may be enough to earn 12th position in the standings.
Match preview
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When West Ham missed an early penalty and conceded an own goal at West Bromwich Albion on Wednesday night, David Moyes was left to contemplate that it just was not meant to be with regards to European football.
However, like they did against Burnley and Brighton & Hove Albion, the Hammers bounced back to get important points on the board to keep their fate in their own hands.
Despite only a point being required in front of an expectant home crowd, Moyes knows that his side cannot move away from the tactics which have proven so effective over the course of the season.
Although 10 games have now passed without keeping a clean sheet, West Ham have still managed to collect 14 points during that period.
That return is lower than supporters would have hoped for when Champions League football was a possibility, but avoiding defeat against Southampton would cap one of their best seasons in recent memory.
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Complacency should not be an issue for West Ham with their opponents having shown signs of life during their last three fixtures.
While Leeds United outlasted them in midweek, Ralph Hasenhuttl will still be happy with the six points picked up against Crystal Palace and Fulham.
That return has ensured that the Saints can finish no lower than 16th, but Hasenhuttl and his squad know that 12th is still a realistic possibility.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Palace face Manchester United and Liverpool respectively, a scenario which will keep everyone associated with Southampton motivated until the final whistle.
James Ward-Prowse is one completed fixture away from ending the season having played every single minute of Premier League football.
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Team News
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Barring any late fitness issues, Moyes is likely to stick with the West Ham side which defeated West Brom in midweek.
Darren Randolph is expected to keep his place in the team after first-choice goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski was injured during the warm-up at The Hawthorns.
While Hasenhuttl has been limiting the game time of Danny Ings, the England international should replace the injured Che Adams.
Nathan Redmond will almost certainly come in for either Theo Walcott or Moussa Djenepo, while Jan Bednarek is an option in the middle of the defence.
Jack Stephens or Mohammed Salisu could drop out of the starting lineup.
West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Randolph; Coufal, Dawson, Ogbonna, Cresswell; Soucek, Rice; Fornals, Lingard, Benrahma; Antonio
Southampton possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Walker-Peters, Bednarek, Vestergaard, Stephens; Walcott, Armstrong, Ward-Prowse, Redmond; Ings, Tella
We say: West Ham United 2-1 Southampton
With nerves in one dressing room and no pressure in the other, this has all the makings of a tense 90 minutes. Nevertheless, we still expect the Hammers to get the job done, potentially by the odd goal in three after conceding during the early stages.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for Southampton had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest Southampton win was 1-2 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.
