Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Modena win with a probability of 43.29%. A win for Reggiana had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Modena win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest Reggiana win was 1-0 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.