Taca de Portugal | Third Round
Oct 20, 2024 at 3pm UK
Estadio Moinhos Novos
Arouca

Maria da Fonte
0 - 5
Arouca


Goncalo Macedo Goncalves (70')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Yalcin (22', 28'), Jason (45+1'), Araujo (66'), Santos (83' pen.)
Popovic (26')
Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Third Round clash between Maria da Fonte and Arouca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Maria da Fonte

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Arouca

All competitions
Last Game: Arouca 1-1 AVS
Saturday, October 5 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 82.31%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Maria da Fonte had a probability of 5.96%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.38%) and 0-4 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.53%), while for a Maria da Fonte win it was 1-0 (1.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
Maria da FonteDrawArouca
5.96% (0.066 0.07)11.73% (0.042999999999999 0.04)82.31% (-0.105 -0.11)
Both teams to score 46.33% (0.24 0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
69.02% (0.078000000000003 0.08)30.98% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
47.63% (0.091999999999999 0.09)52.36% (-0.088000000000001 -0.09)
Maria da Fonte Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
49.06% (0.257 0.26)50.94% (-0.252 -0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
14.7% (0.174 0.17)85.3% (-0.17 -0.17)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
94.42% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)5.58% (0.0058999999999996 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
78.31% (-0.010999999999996 -0.01)21.69% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Maria da Fonte 5.96%
    Arouca 82.3%
    Draw 11.73%
Maria da FonteDrawArouca
1-0 @ 1.92% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
2-1 @ 1.87% (0.02 0.02)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 5.96%
1-1 @ 5.53% (0.016 0.02)
0-0 @ 2.84% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.69% (0.026 0.03)
Other @ 0.66%
Total : 11.73%
0-2 @ 11.83% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-3 @ 11.38% (-0.059999999999999 -0.06)
0-4 @ 8.22% (-0.042999999999999 -0.04)
0-1 @ 8.2% (-0.037000000000001 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.99% (0.021 0.02)
1-3 @ 7.68% (0.018 0.02)
1-4 @ 5.54% (0.012 0.01)
0-5 @ 4.74% (-0.027 -0.03)
1-5 @ 3.2% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.59% (0.025 0.03)
0-6 @ 2.28% (-0.013 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.87% (0.017 0.02)
1-6 @ 1.54% (0.002 0)
2-5 @ 1.08% (0.01 0.01)
0-7 @ 0.94% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 82.3%