Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Tula win with a probability of 48.51%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 26.3% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (7.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.