Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 28.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 0-1 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 43.65% | 27.78% | 28.56% |
| Both teams to score 46.43% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.98% | 59.02% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.51% | 79.49% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.15% | 26.85% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.85% | 62.15% |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.47% | 36.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.68% | 73.32% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 1-0 @ 12.89% 2-1 @ 8.54% 2-0 @ 8.48% 3-1 @ 3.74% 3-0 @ 3.72% 3-2 @ 1.89% 4-1 @ 1.23% 4-0 @ 1.22% Other @ 1.94% Total : 43.64% | 1-1 @ 12.98% 0-0 @ 9.81% 2-2 @ 4.3% Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.78% | 0-1 @ 9.88% 1-2 @ 6.54% 0-2 @ 4.97% 1-3 @ 2.2% 0-3 @ 1.67% 2-3 @ 1.44% Other @ 1.87% Total : 28.56% |