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Aldershot Town
Altrincham
Barnet
Boreham Wood
Bromley
Chesterfield
Dagenham & Redbridge
Eastleigh
Ebbsfleet United
AFC Fylde
Gateshead
Halifax Town
Hartlepool United
Maidenhead United
Oldham Athletic
Rochdale
Solihull Moors
Southend United
Wealdstone
Woking
Grimsby Town
National League | Gameweek 16
Nov 19, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
 
Southend United

Grimsby Town
1 - 0
Southend

Taylor (3')
McAtee (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Ferguson (77'), Egbri (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's National League clash between Grimsby Town and Southend United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Grimsby Town play host to Southend United on Friday evening knowing that they will move joint-top of the National League standings with a victory. Meanwhile, 20th-placed Southend make the trip to Blundell Park looking for a second win in three games, a result which would move them clear of the bottom three.

Match preview

There was a time not so long ago when Grimsby appeared to be in cruise control at this level, collecting 25 points from a possible 30 from September 4 onwards. However, a 1-0 defeat at lowly Wealdstone upset the applecart at Blundell Park, and Paul Hurst's side have since lost three more matches in all competitions. As well as three successive setbacks in the National League, Grimsby also suffered a 1-0 defeat at home to Kidderminster Harriers in the FA Cup. Hurst has suggested that he has been unhappy with the performances of several players, demanding a response ahead of what feels like an important fixture. At a time when Grimsby have been competing at the right end of the table, Southend are battling to avoid a third successive relegation and even remain in existence. The appointment of club legend Kevin Maher has gone some way to lifting spirits at Roots Hall, but supporters remain pessimistic about a prolonged improved run. Some progress has been made in recent games, the 4-1 win over bottom-placed Dover Athletic an absolute necessity and Maher's men stayed competitive against Woking. Nevertheless, they are still just one point above the drop zone ahead of one of their toughest matches on paper, a less-than-ideal scenario when attempting to build momentum. Despite losing five of their seven away games this season, positives can be taken from shipping just 10 goals, the most recent 1-0 setback at high-flying Boreham Wood a consequence of being reduced to 10 men.
Grimsby Town National League form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
Grimsby Town form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
Southend United National League form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
Southend United form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Team News

Hurst must decide whether to give another opportunity to young winger Evan Khouri or hand a recall to Will Bapaga. The experienced Giles Coke may come back into the midfield, potentially as a replacement for Ben Fox. Ryan Taylor is expected to get the nod over Lenell John-Lewis in attack. Abu Ogogo remained as an unused substitute last time out, but the midfielder will be considered for a recall on Friday. Nathan Ralph is an alternative to Jack Bridge, but the rest of the side could stay the same. Grimsby Town possible starting lineup: McKeown; Efete, Waterfall, Towler, Revan; Coke, Hunt; Sousa, Clifton, Khouri; Taylor Southend United possible starting lineup: Arnold; Dimitriou, White, Hobson, Lopata; Brunt, Dunne, Phillips, Bridge; Dalby, Murphy

We said: Grimsby Town 3-1 Southend United

Given the form of their hosts, Southend will be confidence of causing an upset on the East Coast. However, we can only back the Mariners to return to winning ways, inflicting more misery on opponents who are under pressure to move clear of the drop zone.
Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 53.64%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Southend United had a probability of 21.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.56%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Southend United win it was 0-1 (7.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Grimsby Town in this match.

Result
Grimsby TownDrawSouthend United
53.64%25.22%21.15%
Both teams to score 46.83%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.92%55.08%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.66%76.34%
Grimsby Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.46%20.54%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.95%53.05%
Southend United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.94%41.06%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.39%77.61%
Score Analysis
    Grimsby Town 53.63%
    Southend United 21.15%
    Draw 25.22%
Grimsby TownDrawSouthend United
1-0 @ 13.35%
2-0 @ 10.56%
2-1 @ 9.4%
3-0 @ 5.58%
3-1 @ 4.96%
3-2 @ 2.21%
4-0 @ 2.21%
4-1 @ 1.96%
Other @ 3.4%
Total : 53.63%
1-1 @ 11.88%
0-0 @ 8.43%
2-2 @ 4.19%
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 25.22%
0-1 @ 7.51%
1-2 @ 5.29%
0-2 @ 3.34%
1-3 @ 1.57%
2-3 @ 1.24%
0-3 @ 0.99%
Other @ 1.21%
Total : 21.15%

How you voted: Grimsby Town vs Southend

Grimsby Town
88.9%
Draw
7.4%
Southend United
3.7%
27
Head to Head
Jan 16, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 24
Grimsby Town
0-0
Southend
Habergham (71'), Spokes (90+1')
McCormack (74'), White (75'), Demetriou (90+4')
Dec 15, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 18
Southend
3-1
Grimsby Town
Taylor (1'), Clifford (57'), Halford (75')
Jackson Jr (45+4')
Hewitt (68'), Waterfall (73')
Waterfall (90+4')
May 7, 2005 3pm
Grimsby Town
1-1
Southend
Reddy (57')
Eastwood (70')
Prior (60')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CChesterfield4530510103634095
2Barnet452581287592883
3Bromley452215872472581
4AltrinchamAltrincham4521111383592474
5Solihull MoorsSolihull452013127062873
6Gateshead452191586632372
7Halifax TownHalifax451814135550568
8Aldershot TownAldershot45208177180-968
9Southend UnitedSouthend4521121269432665
10Oldham AthleticOldham451518126157463
11Rochdale451514166763459
12Eastleigh451611187384-1159
13Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead451513175864-658
14Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool45169206679-1357
15Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red451413186660655
16Fylde451510207479-555
17WealdstoneWealdstone451411205770-1353
18York City451217165568-1353
19Ebbsfleet451411205974-1553
20Woking451410214655-952
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood451215185973-1451
22Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster451113213955-1646
23Dorking WanderersDorking45129245181-3045
24Oxford CityOxford City4589285493-3933


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