Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 49.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Montreal Impact had a probability of 25.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Montreal Impact win it was 0-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.