Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 49.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Montreal Impact had a probability of 25.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.29%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.24%), while for a Montreal Impact win it was 0-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | CF Montreal |
| 49.07% | 25.81% | 25.13% |
| Both teams to score 49.55% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.24% | 53.76% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.76% | 75.24% |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.07% | 21.93% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.79% | 55.21% |
| CF Montreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.47% | 36.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.68% | 73.32% |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | CF Montreal |
| 1-0 @ 12.15% 2-1 @ 9.29% 2-0 @ 9.22% 3-1 @ 4.7% 3-0 @ 4.66% 3-2 @ 2.37% 4-1 @ 1.78% 4-0 @ 1.77% Other @ 3.13% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 12.24% 0-0 @ 8.01% 2-2 @ 4.68% Other @ 0.88% Total : 25.8% | 0-1 @ 8.07% 1-2 @ 6.16% 0-2 @ 4.06% 1-3 @ 2.07% 2-3 @ 1.57% 0-3 @ 1.36% Other @ 1.83% Total : 25.13% |