Thanks to their late penalties last week, Racing Club do have a lifeline heading into the second leg with home advantage, and while we do see them causing the visitors problems, we back Atletico Nacional to score a few of their own and just come out on top on aggregate, even if they do not prevail on the night in Buenos Aires.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing Club win with a probability of 55.22%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 20.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing Club win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for an Atletico Nacional win it was 0-1 (6.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Racing Club would win this match.
-1.48) 
1.59) 
