Uganda head into Thursday's game needing all three points against Niger and favourable results in the other group fixture to stand a chance of securing a first AFCON appearance since 2019. With the Mena playing only for pride, we fancy Uganda snatching a narrow win in this one.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 53.63%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Niger had a probability of 18.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.02%) and 1-2 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.48%), while for a Niger win it was 1-0 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uganda would win this match.
-0) 
0.01) 
