Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 57.7%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.25%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (5.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
| 57.7% | 22.73% | 19.56% |
| Both teams to score 51.86% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.81% | 47.18% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.58% | 69.41% |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.92% | 16.08% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.54% | 45.46% |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.8% | 38.2% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.03% | 74.96% |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Espanyol |
| 1-0 @ 11.22% 2-0 @ 10.25% 2-1 @ 9.87% 3-0 @ 6.25% 3-1 @ 6.02% 3-2 @ 2.89% 4-0 @ 2.86% 4-1 @ 2.75% 4-2 @ 1.32% 5-0 @ 1.04% 5-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.21% Total : 57.69% | 1-1 @ 10.8% 0-0 @ 6.14% 2-2 @ 4.75% 3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.73% | 0-1 @ 5.91% 1-2 @ 5.2% 0-2 @ 2.84% 1-3 @ 1.67% 2-3 @ 1.52% 0-3 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.51% Total : 19.57% |