Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Oct 1, 2020 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti
Sao Paulo

River Plate
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

Alvarez (11', 37')
Suarez (16'), Perez (19'), Casco (90+3')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Diego (26')
Alves (21'), Diego (35'), Bueno (71'), Juanfran (90+3')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between River Plate and Sao Paulo.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 58.04%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 19.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (5.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.

Result
River PlateDrawSao Paulo
58.04%22.69%19.27%
Both teams to score 51.5%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.58%47.41%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.37%69.63%
River Plate Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.96%16.04%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.6%45.4%
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.34%38.65%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.6%75.39%
Score Analysis
    River Plate 58.03%
    Sao Paulo 19.27%
    Draw 22.68%
River PlateDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 11.34%
2-0 @ 10.38%
2-1 @ 9.87%
3-0 @ 6.33%
3-1 @ 6.02%
4-0 @ 2.9%
3-2 @ 2.86%
4-1 @ 2.75%
4-2 @ 1.31%
5-0 @ 1.06%
5-1 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 58.03%
1-1 @ 10.78%
0-0 @ 6.2%
2-2 @ 4.69%
3-3 @ 0.91%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 22.68%
0-1 @ 5.89%
1-2 @ 5.13%
0-2 @ 2.8%
1-3 @ 1.62%
2-3 @ 1.49%
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 19.27%