Throughout the season, Gremio have underachieved, but they are showing us a lot this month, albeit a little too late for them to climb into the top half of the table. They have enough talent to get themselves out of their current relegation predicament, though, while Bahia rely a little too heavily on Gilberto and without much scoring depth after that.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 43.25%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 30.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
