Preview: Atletico Mineiro vs Gremio - prediction, team news, lineups

Atletico Mineiro and Gremio face off on Sunday at Arena MRV in round 23 of the 2026 Brasileiro.

The hosts sit in 11th place with 29 points and are looking to turn their positive cup momentum into more consistent league form. Meanwhile, Gremio are 14th with 25 points, boosted by a comeback win over Sao Paulo but still under pressure after failing to win an away game in this league campaign.

Match preview

Atletico come into the game in high spirits, unbeaten in eight matches across all competitions, though still seeking a sustained climb up the Brasileiro table. Since the league resumed, Eduardo Dominguez's men have drawn with Bahia and Remo and defeated Palmeiras away, collecting five points from three matches.

Sitting 11th with 29 points, the team still struggles with consistency. Their recent 2-2 draw with Remo highlighted this: strong going forward, but lacking control over 90 minutes.

Midweek, Atletico gained a confidence boost with a 1-0 win away at RB Bragantino in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana round of 16. The result gives Galo an edge in the tie, but also means player fatigue will need to be managed ahead of another decisive fixture.

At Arena MRV, home advantage reinforces their status as favourites. Atletico have lost only once at home in the Brasileiro and tend to dictate play, but must balance possession and defensive coverage to avoid giving Gremio chances on the break.

Gremio arrive with some breathing room after beating Sao Paulo 2-1 in the last round of the Brasileiro. The result lifted Luis Castro's men out of the relegation zone and up to 14th with 25 points, though the gap to the bottom four is still narrow.

Before that, they also beat Mirassol 1-0 in the Copa do Brasil to reach the quarterfinals. These two wins were crucial responses in Porto Alegre after their Sudamericana exit to Bolivar, but the current challenge is replicating that competitiveness away from home.

Gremio's main issue remains away form. They have yet to win outside Porto Alegre in this Brasileiro, hampered by low attacking output and difficulty maintaining control when forced to chase the game or withstand sustained pressure.

This weekend’s matchup pits a more consistent Atletico against a refreshed Gremio who still need to prove themselves away from home. Galo hold the edge due to home advantage and recent momentum, though squad fatigue from the Sudamericana does narrow the gap.

Atletico Mineiro Brasileiro form:

Atletico Mineiro form (all competitions):

Gremio Brasileiro form:

Gremio form (all competitions):

Team News

Atletico will be without Lyanco, who left the match against Bragantino in the first half with a plantar fascia rupture in his left foot. The club has not provided a timeline for his return and is opting for non-surgical treatment; Vitor Hugo is the likely replacement to partner Ruan Tressoldi in central defence.

Leo Duarte, Gustavo Scarpa, and Indio remain sidelined with injuries. Meanwhile, manager Dominguez welcomes back Vitao and Patrick, who have been cleared by the medical team, along with Renan Lodi, who returns from suspension. New signing Fred was announced this week but is unlikely to feature.

For Gremio, Tete has been cleared by the medical team after treatment for hip oedema. The forward is back in training and could be called up, though Jovane Cabral may keep his place after contributing to the wins over Mirassol and Sao Paulo.

Croatian midfielder Filip Krovinovic is now registered and eligible to debut, competing for a midfield spot, while Danilo Barbosa is not yet available. Cristian Pavon is expected to stay in the attacking trio after a strong performance against Sao Paulo, while Francis Amuzu, Tete, and Jovane Cabral contest the other attacking spots.

Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:

Everson; Preciado, Tressoldi, Hugo, Lodi; Perez, Franco, Cisse; Bernard, Minda, Cassierra

Gremio possible starting lineup:

Weverton; Caito, Martins, Wallace, Marlon; Noriega, Nardoni, Villasanti; Pavon, Cabral, Vinicius

We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Gremio

Atletico hold a slight edge because of the match context and their stronger recent form, especially at Arena MRV. Galo have the quality to navigate decisive moments better and turn home advantage into a lead.

Gremio should remain competitive and have ways to cause problems, especially if they capitalise on set pieces and lapses in Atletico's tempo. Nevertheless, the expectation is a balanced contest that ends in an Atletico victory, with scoring chances for both sides.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.