Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 49.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.41% and a win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 25.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.05%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.94%) , while for a Atletico Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.