Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 50.12%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Mirassol had a probability of 22.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%) , while for a Mirassol win it was 0-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood.