Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirassol win with a probability of 61.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.53% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 15.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirassol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.35%) and 2-1 (10.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.31%) , while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (5.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.