Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 38.64%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.61%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (9.67%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.