Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 61.81%. A draw had a probability of 23.65% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 14.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%) , while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.