Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 55.19%. A draw had a probability of 25.96% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 18.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%) , while for a Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.