Brasileiro Gameweek 4
Feb 26, 2026 12.30am
Arena do Grêmio

Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Feb 12, 2026 12.30am
Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Gremio
Goals scored
6
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions
Last game
Feb 11, 2026 11.00pm
Atletico Mineiro 3 - 3 Remo
Goals scored
5
Top scorer
Dudu

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Gremio win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Atletico Mineiro has a probability of 29.3% and a draw has a probability of 25.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.43%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win is 0-1 (7.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.3%).

Result

Gremio 44.85% (-0.61)
Draw 25.82% (-0.11)
Atletico Mineiro 29.3% (+0.72)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.08% (+1.54)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.18% (+0.99)
Under 1.5 25.82% (-0.99)
Over 2.5 49.78% (+1.46)
Under 2.5 50.19% (-1.49)
Over 3.5 27.48% (+1.41)
Under 3.5 72.49% (-1.44)
Over 4.5 15.28% (+0.97)
Under 4.5 84.72% (-0.97)

First Half Winner

Gremio 33.32%
Draw 43.88%
Atletico Mineiro 22.8%

Team To Score First

Gremio 53.58% (+0.20)
No Goal 7.23% (-0.34)
Atletico Mineiro 39.19% (+0.15)

Corners

Over 8 51.22%
Equal 8 11.98%
Under 8 36.8%
Over 9 39.63% (+0.02)
Equal 9 11.59%
Under 9 48.78%
Over 10.5 29.32%
Under 10.5 70.68%

Gremio Goals

Over 1.5 42.54% (+0.43)
Under 1.5 57.46% (-0.43)
Over 2.5 18.31% (+0.47)
Under 2.5 81.69% (-0.47)
Over 3.5 6.82% (+0.34)
Under 3.5 93.18% (-0.34)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5 64.19% (+1.16)
Under 0.5 35.81% (-1.16)
Over 1.5 30.3% (+1.31)
Under 1.5 69.7% (-1.30)
Over 2.5 10.56% (+0.71)
Under 2.5 89.44% (-0.71)
Over 3.5 2.95% (+0.25)
Under 3.5 97.05% (-0.25)

Score analysis

Gremio 44.85%
Draw 25.82%
Atletico Mineiro 29.29%
Gremio
1-0 @ 10.69% (-0.55)
2-1 @ 9.48%
2-0 @ 7.43% (-0.42)
3-1 @ 4.25% (+0.06)
3-0 @ 3.71% (-0.19)
3-2 @ 2.58% (+0.17)
Other @ 6.71% (+0.33)
Total : 44.85%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.3% (-0.10)
0-0 @ 7.23% (-0.34)
2-2 @ 5.23% (+0.23)
Other @ 0.11% (+0.03)
Total : 25.82%
Atletico Mineiro
0-1 @ 7.86% (-0.10)
1-2 @ 7.25% (+0.17)
0-2 @ 4.68% (+0.05)
1-3 @ 2.71% (+0.15)
2-3 @ 2.09% (+0.14)
0-3 @ 1.86% (+0.08)
Other @ 2.84% (+0.23)
Total : 29.29%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Aug 17, 2025 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Mar 29, 2025 9.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Matias Arezo 33' goal
  • Wagner Leonardo 39' yellowcard
  • Edenilson 45' goal
  • Jemerson 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Cristian Pavon 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Cristian Olivera 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Rony 75'
Brasileiro Gameweek 6
Oct 9, 2024 11.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Arena MRV
  • Hulk 11' goal
  • Lyanco 18' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Milito 19' yellowcard
  • Deyverson 39' goal
  • Deyverson 54' yellowcard
  • Fausto Vera 55' yellowcard
  • Hulk 90' yellowcard
  • goal Alexander Aravena 24'
  • yellowcard Jemerson 33'
  • yellowcard Agustin Marchesin 35'
  • yellowcard Reinaldo 54'
Brasileiro Gameweek 25
Sep 1, 2024 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Gustavo Martins 20' redcard
  • Martin Braithwaite 32' goal
  • Franco Cristaldo 42' goal
  • Walter Kannemann 71' yellowcard
  • Agustin Marchesin 90'+9' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bernard 29'
  • yellowcard Deyverson 40'
  • goal Gustavo Scarpa 73'
  • yellowcard Brahian Palacios 78'
  • goal Brahian Palacios 90'+3'
  • goal Eduardo Vargas 90'+6'
Brasileiro Gameweek 35
Nov 26, 2023 7.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Raimundo Sampaio
  • Guilherme Arana 25' goal
  • Edenilson 36' yellowcard
  • Mauricio Lemos 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Matias Zaracho 50' goal
  • Hulk 58' goal
  • yellowcard Luis Suarez 50'
  • yellowcard Fabio Da Silva 84'
Brasileiro Gameweek 16
Jul 23, 2023 1.00am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Bruno Uvini 5' yellowcard
  • Ronald Cardoso Falkoski 11' goal
  • Ronald 11' goal
  • Reinaldo 62' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Grando 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Rubens 45'+5'
  • yellowcard Renzo Saravia 76'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Lemos 89'
  • yellowcard Alisson Santana 89'