Brasileiro Gameweek 4
Feb 26, 2026 12.30am
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Grêmio
  • Erick Noriega 51' goal
  • Marlon 66' goal
  • Dodi 69' yellowcard
  • Roger 80' yellowcard
  • 80' yellowcard
  • João Pedro 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mamady Cissé 46'
  • goal Victor Hugo 56'
  • yellowcard Reinier 68'
  • yellowcard Dudu 69'
  • yellowcard Alan Minda 80'
  • yellowcard Mateo Cassierra 89'
  • yellowcard Mateo Cassierra 90'

Gremio vs Atletico Mineiro - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Feb 12, 2026 12.30am
Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Gremio
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Carlos Vinicius

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions
Last game
Feb 11, 2026 11.00pm
Atletico Mineiro 3 - 3 Remo
Goals scored
8
Top scorer
Victor Hugo

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 44.88%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 29.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.85%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (7.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.

Result

Gremio 44.88% (+0.04)
Draw 25.85% (+0.04)
Atletico Mineiro 29.26% (-0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.95% (-0.13)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.11% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 25.89% (+0.08)
Over 2.5 49.63% (-0.15)
Under 2.5 50.37% (+0.18)
Over 3.5 27.35% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 72.65% (+0.17)
Over 4.5 15.18% (-0.10)
Under 4.5 84.82% (+0.10)

First Half Winner

Gremio 33.32%
Draw 43.88%
Atletico Mineiro 22.8%

Team To Score First

Gremio 53.53% (-0.05)
No Goal 7.27% (+0.04)
Atletico Mineiro 39.2% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 51.22%
Equal 8 11.98%
Under 8 36.8%
Over 9 39.63%
Equal 9 11.59%
Under 9 48.78%
Over 10.5 29.32%
Under 10.5 70.68%

Gremio Goals

Over 1.5 42.49% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 57.51% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 18.25% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 81.75% (+0.07)
Over 3.5 6.77% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 93.23% (+0.05)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5 64.14% (-0.05)
Under 0.5 35.86% (+0.05)
Over 1.5 30.19% (-0.11)
Under 1.5 69.81% (+0.11)
Over 2.5 10.5% (-0.07)
Under 2.5 89.5% (+0.07)
Over 3.5 2.92% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 97.08% (+0.04)

Score analysis

Gremio 44.89%
Draw 25.85%
Atletico Mineiro 29.26%
Gremio
1-0 @ 10.73% (+0.05)
2-1 @ 9.48%
2-0 @ 7.47% (+0.05)
3-1 @ 4.25%
3-0 @ 3.72% (+0.02)
3-2 @ 2.57% (-0.02)
Other @ 6.67% (-0.05)
Total : 44.89%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.33% (+0.03)
0-0 @ 7.27% (+0.04)
2-2 @ 5.21% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.1% (-0.01)
Total : 25.85%
Atletico Mineiro
0-1 @ 7.89% (+0.03)
1-2 @ 7.23% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 4.68%
1-3 @ 2.7% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.08% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.86%
Other @ 2.82% (-0.03)
Total : 29.26%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Aug 17, 2025 8.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Mar 29, 2025 9.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Matias Arezo 33' goal
  • Wagner Leonardo 39' yellowcard
  • Edenilson 45' goal
  • Jemerson 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Cristian Pavon 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Cristian Olivera 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Rony 75'
Brasileiro Gameweek 6
Oct 9, 2024 11.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Arena MRV
  • Hulk 11' goal
  • Lyanco 18' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Milito 19' yellowcard
  • Deyverson 39' goal
  • Deyverson 54' yellowcard
  • Fausto Vera 55' yellowcard
  • Hulk 90' yellowcard
  • goal Alexander Aravena 24'
  • yellowcard Jemerson 33'
  • yellowcard Agustin Marchesin 35'
  • yellowcard Reinaldo 54'
Brasileiro Gameweek 25
Sep 1, 2024 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Gustavo Martins 20' redcard
  • Martin Braithwaite 32' goal
  • Franco Cristaldo 42' goal
  • Walter Kannemann 71' yellowcard
  • Agustin Marchesin 90'+9' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Bernard 29'
  • yellowcard Deyverson 40'
  • goal Gustavo Scarpa 73'
  • yellowcard Brahian Palacios 78'
  • goal Brahian Palacios 90'+3'
  • goal Eduardo Vargas 90'+6'
Brasileiro Gameweek 35
Nov 26, 2023 7.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Raimundo Sampaio
  • Guilherme Arana 25' goal
  • Edenilson 36' yellowcard
  • Mauricio Lemos 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Matias Zaracho 50' goal
  • Hulk 58' goal
  • yellowcard Luis Suarez 50'
  • yellowcard Fabio Da Silva 84'
Brasileiro Gameweek 16
Jul 23, 2023 1.00am
1
0
HT : 2 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Bruno Uvini 5' yellowcard
  • Ronald Cardoso Falkoski 11' goal
  • Ronald 11' goal
  • Reinaldo 62' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Grando 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Rubens 45'+5'
  • yellowcard Renzo Saravia 76'
  • yellowcard Mauricio Lemos 89'
  • yellowcard Alisson Santana 89'