Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 44.88%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 29.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (7.89%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.