Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 51.82%. A draw had a probability of 24.87% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.94%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%) , while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.