Feb 12, 2026 12.30am

2

0

HT : 1 0

FT Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Lucas Moura 24'
Lucas Moura 24'
Pablo Maia 32'
Luciano 43'
45'
Pablo Maia 45'+4'
Jonathan Calleri 59'
Jonathan Calleri 59'
Luciano 64'
70'
Nahuel Ferraresi 70'
Gonzalo Tapia 70'
Nahuel Ferraresi 71'
Lucas Moura 71'
Ferreira 85'
Pedro Henrique da Silva Ferreira 85'
Ferreirinha 85'
Ferreirinha 90'

Weverton 22'
Willian 40'
Wagner Leonardo 47'
Wagner Leonardo 45'+5'
Gustavo Martins 52'
Gustavo Martins 53'
Jose Enamorado 68'
Cristian Pavon 68'
José Enamorado 68'
Cristian Pavón 68'
André Henrique 68'
Andre Henrique 68'
Jose Enamorado 69'
70'
Cristian Pavon 70'
André Henrique 90'+5'
90'+5'

Sao Paulo vs Gremio - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Paulo

All competitions

D
W
L
W
L
W

Brasileiro

D
W
L
W
L
W

Last game

Feb 4, 2026 11.00pm

Santos 1 - 1 Sao Paulo

Goals scored

39

Top scorer

Luciano

Gremio

All competitions

W
L
W
L
W
L

Brasileiro

W
L
W
L
W
L

Last game

Feb 5, 2026 12.30am

Gremio 5 - 3 Botafogo

Goals scored

38

Top scorer

Carlos Vinicius

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 51.82%. A draw had a probability of 24.87% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.94%) and 2-0 (8.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%) , while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.

Result

Sao Paulo 51.82% ▼ (-0.01)

Draw 24.87% ▼ (-0.01)

Gremio 23.3%

Both Teams to Score:

52.14% ▼ (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.92% ▼ (-0.05)

Under 1.5 27.08% ▲ (+0.05)

Over 2.5 48.7% ▼ (-0.08)

Under 2.5 51.3% ▲ (+0.08)

Over 3.5 25.95% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 3.5 74.05% ▲ (+0.04)

Over 4.5 14.2% ▼ (-0.03)

Under 4.5 85.8% ▲ (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Sao Paulo 35.71%

Draw 46.43%

Gremio 17.86%

Team To Score First

Sao Paulo 56.57% ▼ (-0.01)

No Goal 7.5% ▲ (+0.02)

Gremio 35.93% ▼ (-0.01)

Corners

Over 8 58.5%

Equal 8 11.5%

Under 8 30%

Over 9 46.71%

Equal 9 11.79%

Under 9 41.5%

Over 10.5 35.64%

Under 10.5 64.36%

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 1.5 46.75% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 1.5 53.25% ▲ (+0.04)

Over 2.5 20.41% ▼ (-0.04)

Under 2.5 79.59% ▲ (+0.04)

Over 3.5 7.28% ▼ (-0.02)

Under 3.5 92.72% ▲ (+0.02)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5 59.13% ▼ (-0.01)

Under 0.5 40.87% ▲ (+0.01)

Over 1.5 24.34%

Under 1.5 75.66%

Over 2.5 7.65%

Under 2.5 92.35%

Over 3.5 1.79%

Under 3.5 98.21%

Score analysis

Sao Paulo 51.82%

Draw 24.88%

Gremio 23.31%

Sao Paulo

1-0 @ 12.42% ▲ (+0.04)

2-1 @ 10.94% ▼ (-0.01)

2-0 @ 8.89%

3-1 @ 4.88%

3-0 @ 4.84% ▼ (-0.01)

3-2 @ 2.62%

Other @ 7.23% ▼ (-0.02)

Total : 51.82%

Draw

1-1 @ 11.8% ▼ (-0.01)

0-0 @ 7.5% ▲ (+0.02)

2-2 @ 4.74%

Other @ 0.05%

Total : 24.88%

Gremio

0-1 @ 7.17% ▲ (+0.01)

1-2 @ 5.81% ▼ (-0.02)

0-2 @ 3.52% ▲ (+0.02)

1-3 @ 2.14% ▲ (+0.02)

2-3 @ 1.77%

0-3 @ 1.16% ▼ (-0.02)

Other @ 1.74%

Total : 23.31%

Head to Head

Oct 16, 2025 11.00pm

2

0

HT : 1 0

FT Arena do Grêmio

Carlos Vinícius 39'
Carlos Vinícius 56'
Dodi 90'+4'

Gonzalo Tapia 21'
Maílton 64'
Luciano 75'

May 18, 2025 1.00am

2

1

HT : 0 2

FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo

Pablo Maia 30'
Pablo Maia 30'
Robert Arboleda 49'
Robert Arboleda 49'
45'+7'
Luciano 45'+7'
45'+7'
Luciano 45'+7'
Andre Silva 85'
Andre Silva 85'
Oscar 86'
Oscar 86'
Rafael Pires 90'+8'
Rafael Pires 90'+8'

Mathias Villasanti 4'
Mathias Villasanti 4'
Alexander Aravena 37'
Alexander Aravena 37'
Jemerson 64'
Jemerson 64'
Douglas Moreira 65'
Douglas Moreira 65'
Tiago Volpi 79'
Tiago Volpi 79'

Dec 1, 2024 7.00pm

2

1

HT : 2 0

FT Arena do Gremio

Franco Cristaldo 36'
Ruan 45'+2'
Cristian Pavon 90'+5'

Luiz Gustavo 64'
Wellington Rato 72'

Jul 18, 2024 12.00am

1

0

HT : 2 0

FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo

Lucas Moura 10'
Lucas Moura 10'
Igor Vinicius 38'
Igor Vinicius 38'
Lucas Moura 41'
Lucas Moura 41'
Luis Zubeldia 42'
Luis Zubeldia 42'
Rafael Pires 78'
Rafael Pires 78'
Nathan Ribeiro 90'+1'
Nathan Ribeiro 90'+1'
Igor Vinicius 90'+9'
Igor Vinicius 90'+9'
Welington 90'+13'
Welington 90'+13'

Pepe 23'
Pepe 23'
Mathias Villasanti 31'
Mathias Villasanti 31'
Rafael Pires 80'
Rafael Pires 80'

Oct 21, 2023 10.30pm

3

0

HT : 1 0

FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo

Michel Araujo 21'
Pablo Maia 43'
Pablo Maia 68'
Luciano 90'+7'

Walter Kannemann 21'
Josue 69'
Luis Suarez 89'

Jun 4, 2023 8.00pm

2

1

HT : 2 1

FT Arena do Gremio

Franco Cristaldo 31'
Reinaldo 39'

Jonathan Calleri 15'

Form Data

Santos 1 - 1 Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Flamengo

Vitoria 1 - 0 Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo 3 - 0 Internacional

Fluminense 6 - 0 Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Juventude

Gremio 5 - 3 Botafogo

Fluminense 2 - 1 Gremio

Sport 0 - 4 Gremio

Gremio 1 - 2 Fluminense

Gremio 3 - 2 Palmeiras

Botafogo 3 - 2 Gremio