Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 37.24%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.44%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (9.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.