Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 44.61%. A win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.01%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Cruz Azul win was 2-1 (7.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.