Brasileiro Gameweek 1
Jan 28, 2026 10.30pm
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Fluminense vs Gremio - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Fluminense

All competitions
Last game
Dec 7, 2025 7.00pm
Fluminense 2 - 0 Bahia

Gremio

All competitions
Last game
Dec 7, 2025 7.00pm
Sport 0 - 4 Gremio

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Fluminense win with a probability of 50.56%. A draw has a probability of 25.32% and a win for Gremio has a probability of 24.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (10.3%) and 2-0 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.22%) , while for a Gremio win it is 0-1 (7.69%).

Result

Fluminense 50.56% (+1.24)
Draw 25.32% (-0.63)
Gremio 24.15% (-0.59)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.88% (+0.54)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.51% (+0.72)
Under 1.5 28.49% (-0.72)
Over 2.5 46.31% (+0.79)
Under 2.5 53.69% (-0.79)
Over 3.5 24.49% (+0.28)
Under 3.5 75.51% (-0.29)
Over 4.5 12.85% (+0.11)
Under 4.5 87.15% (-0.11)

First Half Winner

Fluminense 32.61% (-0.83)
Draw 48.09% (+1.04)
Gremio 19.3% (-0.22)

Team To Score First

Fluminense 57.94% (-0.82)
No Goal 7.82% (-0.32)
Gremio 34.24% (+1.13)

Corners

Over 8 54.97% (-1.19)
Equal 8 11.67% (-0.60)
Under 8 33.35% (+1.80)
Over 9 43.34% (-0.44)
Equal 9 11.63% (-0.75)
Under 9 45.03% (+1.19)
Over 10.5 32.7% (+0.29)
Under 10.5 67.3% (-0.29)

Fluminense Goals

Over 1.5 44.45% (+1.41)
Under 1.5 55.55% (-1.41)
Over 2.5 18.62% (+0.70)
Under 2.5 81.38% (-0.71)
Over 3.5 6.58% (+0.53)
Under 3.5 93.42% (-0.52)

Gremio Goals

Over 0.5 59.21% (-0.51)
Under 0.5 40.79% (+0.51)
Over 1.5 24.2% (-0.61)
Under 1.5 75.8% (+0.61)
Over 2.5 6.94% (-0.45)
Under 2.5 93.06% (+0.46)
Over 3.5 1.76% (-0.11)
Under 3.5 98.24% (+0.10)

Score analysis

Fluminense 50.57%
Draw 25.34%
Gremio 24.16%
Fluminense
1-0 @ 13.05% (-0.24)
2-1 @ 10.3% (+0.33)
2-0 @ 9.07% (+0.33)
3-1 @ 4.8% (+0.15)
3-0 @ 4.35% (+0.28)
3-2 @ 2.43% (-0.10)
Other @ 6.57% (+0.53)
Total : 50.57%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.22% (-0.27)
0-0 @ 7.82% (-0.32)
2-2 @ 4.83% (+0.13)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.34%
Gremio
0-1 @ 7.69% (-0.10)
1-2 @ 6.12% (-0.05)
0-2 @ 3.88% (-0.13)
1-3 @ 2.03% (-0.13)
2-3 @ 1.63% (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.03)
Other @ 1.75% (-0.11)
Total : 24.16%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Dec 3, 2025 12.30am
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT
  • Andre Henrique 54' goal
  • Douglas Moreira 58' yellowcard
  • Arthur 61' yellowcard
  • 78' yellowcard
  • Gustavo Martins 78' yellowcard
  • goal Yeferson Soteldo 19'
  • goal Yeferson Soteldo 52'
  • yellowcard Vinicius Lima 86'
Brasileiro Gameweek 18
Aug 3, 2025 1.00am
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 32
Nov 2, 2024 12.00am
2
2
HT : 2 2
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Jhon Arias 43' goal
  • Jhon Arias 43' goal
  • Martinelli 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Martinelli 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Ganso 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Ganso 45'+4' yellowcard
  • Kaua Elias Nogueira 66' goal
  • Kaua Elias Nogueira 66' goal
  • Kaua Elias Nogueira 78' yellowcard
  • Kaua Elias Nogueira 78' yellowcard
  • Mathias Villasanti 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Mathias Villasanti 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Fabio 90'+7' yellowcard
  • Fabio 90'+7' yellowcard
  • Jhon Arias 90'+8' yellowcard
  • Jhon Arias 90'+8' yellowcard
  • Felipe Melo 90'+10' redcard
  • Felipe Melo 90'+10' redcard
  • goal Martin Braithwaite 26'
  • goal Martin Braithwaite 26'
  • yellowcard Yeferson Soteldo 31'
  • yellowcard Yeferson Soteldo 31'
  • yellowcard Renato Portaluppi 32'
  • yellowcard Renato Portaluppi 32'
  • yellowcard Martin Braithwaite 36'
  • yellowcard Martin Braithwaite 36'
  • yellowcard Reinaldo 45'
  • yellowcard Reinaldo 45'
  • yellowcard Kaua Elias Nogueira 88'
  • yellowcard Kaua Elias Nogueira 88'
  • goal Reinaldo 90'+9'
  • goal Reinaldo 90'+9'
Copa Libertadores
Aug 20, 2024 11.00pm
2
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Jornalista Mario Filho
  • Thiago Silva 14' goal
  • Jhon Arias 28' goal
  • Kaua Elias Nogueira 31' yellowcard
  • Samuel Xavier 33' yellowcard
  • Guga 69' yellowcard
  • Ganso 73' yellowcard
  • Jemerson 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Douglas Moreira 27'
  • yellowcard Yeferson Soteldo 30'
  • yellowcard Renato Portaluppi 72'
  • goal Gustavo Nunes 76'
  • yellowcard Ganso 84'
Copa Libertadores
Aug 13, 2024 11.00pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Major Antonio Couto Pereira
  • Agustin Marchesin 68' yellowcard
  • Martin Braithwaite 72' yellowcard
  • Reinaldo 74' goal
  • Reinaldo 77' goal
  • Rodrigo Ely 84' redcard
  • goal Vinicius Lima 58'
  • yellowcard Ganso 68'
  • yellowcard Thiago 72'
  • yellowcard Esquerdinha 76'
Brasileiro Gameweek 13
Jun 30, 2024 8.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Arena do Gremio
  • Pedro Geromel 36' yellowcard
  • Douglas Moreira 55' yellowcard
  • Gustavo Nunes 61' goal
  • yellowcard German Cano 39'
  • yellowcard Jan Fanc Lucumii Gonzalez 52'
  • redcard Jan Fanc Lucumii Gonzalez 87'