Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 68.34%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 12.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%) , while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.