Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 44.94%. A win for Fluminense had a probability of 29.59% and a draw had a probability of 25.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Fluminense win was 0-1 (8%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.