Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 40.66%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (8.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.