Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 49.18%. A win for Santos had a probability of 26.03% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.98%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Santos win was 1-2 (6.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.