Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Mirassol had a probability of 32.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Mirassol win was 1-0 (9.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.