Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirassol win with a probability of 51.01%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirassol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%) , while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.