Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chapecoense win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 27.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chapecoense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (8.33%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.