Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 64%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 13.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.6%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.3%), while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (5.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fluminense | Draw | Chapecoense |
| 64% | 22.41% | 13.58% |
| Both teams to score 40.82% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.52% | 55.47% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.34% | 76.66% |
| Fluminense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.18% | 16.82% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.2% | 46.8% |
| Chapecoense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.08% | 50.92% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.71% | 85.29% |
| Score Analysis |
Fluminense 63.99%
Chapecoense 13.58%
Draw 22.41%
| Fluminense | Draw | Chapecoense |
| 1-0 @ 15.26% 2-0 @ 13.6% 2-1 @ 9.18% 3-0 @ 8.09% 3-1 @ 5.46% 4-0 @ 3.6% 4-1 @ 2.43% 3-2 @ 1.84% 5-0 @ 1.29% Other @ 3.24% Total : 63.99% | 1-1 @ 10.3% 0-0 @ 8.56% 2-2 @ 3.1% Other @ 0.45% Total : 22.41% | 0-1 @ 5.78% 1-2 @ 3.48% 0-2 @ 1.95% Other @ 2.38% Total : 13.58% |


