Chapecoense

1 - 3

Gremio

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 42.15%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 30.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (9.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.