Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chapecoense win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 32.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chapecoense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 0-1 (10.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.