Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 56.61%. A draw had a probability of 25.74% and a win for Chapecoense had a probability of 17.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.79%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%) , while for a Chapecoense win it was 0-1 (7.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.