Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chapecoense win with a probability of 47.82%. A draw had a probability of 27.57% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 24.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chapecoense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.77%) , while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.