Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 62.37%. A draw had a probability of 23.75% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 13.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.97%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%) , while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.