Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirassol win with a probability of 51.07%. A draw had a probability of 24.83% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirassol win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.97%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%) , while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.