Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw had a probability of 25.08% and a win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.31%) and 2-1 (9.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.94%) , while for a Atletico Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.05%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.