Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 24.24% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 17.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.44%) and 2-1 (10.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%) , while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.